March 18, 2026
Raising the minimum wage is widely seen as a way to boost the livelihoods of low-wage workers. But new research suggests the policy may also have an unintended effect: higher rates of workplace injuries.
In a study of minimum wage increases across California from 2000 to 2019, researchers Michael Davies, R. Jisung Park, and Anna Stansbury found a consistent pattern. Minimum wage increases in California, either statewide or local, led to small but meaningful increases in workplace injury rates for low-wage workers. When the minimum wage increased by 10 percent, workplace injuries among low-wage workers rose by about 4 percent—roughly two additional injuries per 1,000 workers each year.
The increase was concentrated in occupations where pay is closest to the minimum wage, such as food service, cleaning, and manual labor. Workers in higher-paying occupations showed little change in injury rates after minimum wage hikes.
The research was supported by the Upjohn Institute’s Early Career Research Awards, providing resources for researchers within six years of earning a PhD to carry out policy-related research on employment issues.
Why might higher wages lead to more injuries? When labor costs rise, employers may respond by trying to increase productivity—asking workers to move faster, handle more tasks, or operate with leaner staffing. Injuries tied to cumulative physical strain, such as repetitive-motion injuries, increased at nearly twice the rate of overall injuries, suggesting the pace of work may intensify after wage hikes.
Even with the higher injury rate, the authors conclude that workers are still better off overall with a higher minimum wage. They estimate that the welfare cost of the increase in injury risk offsets approximately 19 percent of the benefit of higher earnings.
For policymakers, the findings highlight a trade-off that has received little attention in the debate over minimum wage laws. The researchers conclude that pairing wage increases with stronger workplace safety standards or enforcement could help ensure that higher pay does not come at the cost of worker safety.