The Upjohn Institute New Hires Quality Index rose for the third straight month, up 0.3 percent between April and May to $22.13, its highest level since 2023. Hiring volume also reversed its slide and rose 0.4 percent over the month but is still down 3.0 percent over the year.
Hiring rates, which adjust for population growth, are near record lows. These trends, taken together, suggest it’s becoming harder to find jobs, but that the few jobs people find have high earnings power, index creator Brad Hershbein writes,
In this month’s news release, Hershbein compares hiring in the public and private sectors. Since 2023, the public sector’s NHQI wage index has fallen 4.5 percent, while the index rose 0.4 percent for the private sector.
Hiring volume fell for both groups in recent years. In the last few months, however, public sector hiring rebounded some, on the strength of hiring for state and local government jobs, which tend to pay less than federal ones. Per-capita hiring rates have fallen over the last year to near a record low for the private sector, while rates for the public sector have held steady.
In all, Hershbein concludes, government jobs have become easier to get but not as good.
Read the full analysis or explore the index.