April 2, 2026
The Upjohn Institute New Hires Quality Index shows that the inflation-adjusted hourly earnings power of people starting new jobs climbed slightly in February, rising to $22.28, just topping the previous high from July 2023. Hiring volume dipped from January, however. While still up 3.6% for the year, it is down 3.2% from before COVID. Adjusting for population change, hiring rates show a similar pattern, but are down even further from the pre-COVID baseline.
This month, author Brad Hershbein examines the state of hiring for people with different levels of educational attainment. Many poplar articles argue that recent college graduates are struggling to find work, but is this true?
The release focuses on how things are going for newly hired workers with a graduate degree, a bachelor’s degree, and either a high school diploma or some college. The results show a more complicated picture than “a degree isn’t worth what it used to be.”
The overall wage index is at an all-time high, as mentioned above. However, the educational-specific indices are comparatively flat. What does this mean? That newly hired workers tend to be better educated than they used to be, since more education still leads to higher-wage occupations.
Hiring volume and rates, however, are a bit more dynamic. Although hiring rates are still rather low relative to historic averages, the hiring rate has recently climbed for those with post-secondary educations. Over the past year, the hiring rate has spiked 16.4 percent for those with graduate degrees and increased by a more modest 4.1 percent for those with bachelor’s degrees. Those in the least educated group, those with a high school diploma or some college, saw their hiring rate barely increase by a tenth of a percent.
This suggests that while it is more difficult for many people to find a job now than it was a few years ago, having a bachelor’s degree is still a benefit for job seekers, both in terms of getting a job and earning more money in it.
Interactive charts and full data are available at upjohn.org/nhqi.