May 6, 2026
The Upjohn Institute New Hires Quality Index shows that the inflation-adjusted hourly earnings power of people starting new jobs did not change in March, holding firm at $22.28. This is still a record high for the index. However, hiring volume continued to decline, falling 0.1 percent since February and 0.6 percent since January. Although volume remains 3.0 percent above last year’s near record low, hiring rates, which adjust for population changes, are down 8.6 percent from the pre-COVID baseline.
This month, author Brad Hershbein examines differences in the hiring market for those who already had a job and those who are currently jobless. While it’s not a great time to be looking for a job, it is better for some than others. Is it easier for the already employed than those without jobs?
Both the newly employed and workers moving employers have seen growth in their wage index over the past year. But those changing employers have seen a 1.9 percent increase, while the increase for the newly employed is smaller, at 1.4 percent. Nonetheless, the latter group’s wage index is at a record high, while that of jobhoppers’ is rebounding from a recent dip.
So, if the earnings power is growing for both types of new hires—for those fortunate enough find a new job—what about the actual volume of new hires?
It turns out that hiring volume for the newly employed has risen about 5 percent over the past 12 months; in contrast, it has held steady for those changing jobs. This would suggest that it is not getting harder to find a job if you don’t already have one.
However, hiring rates, which adjust for the size of the population, are near record lows for both groups, with little recent movement. Although there is slight bump in hiring for the newly employed—implying it has become a tiny bit easier for the jobless to find a new job than the already employed—it is still harder for either group than it was in 2023, or even 2019.
Interactive charts and full data are available at upjohn.org/nhqi.