August 5, 2026
The Upjohn Institute New Hires Quality Index shows inflation-adjusted hourly earnings power of individuals starting a new job increased 0.2 percent in June 2026, to $23.05. The index is up 0.8 percent from one year ago and just slightly below record highs reached earlier this year. Hiring volume has bounced around in recent months, rising 0.3 percent in June after sliding 0.4 percent in May. Although little changed since the beginning of the year, hiring volume is still up 3.3 percent over the year. Adjusting for population growth, hiring rates are up 2.0 percent from last year’s near-record lows, but they remain 8.0 percent below the pre-COVID baseline. Overall, hiring is not as bleak as many have commented, but it is… meh. Just meh.
This month, author Brad Hershbein focuses on both the challenges facing teens and twenty-somethings in finding a job and the quality of the jobs that some of them end up getting. The job market for youth isn’t great right now, but what does a closer look show us? By splitting the New Hires Wage and Hiring Indices into three age groups—teenagers (16–19), those in their early 20s (20–24), and prime-age individuals (25–54)—it becomes possible to see how trends in hiring for each differ and change.
Since the recovery from the Great Recession, newly hired prime-age workers have seen the sharpest rise in their earnings power, with particularly strong growth during the COVID recovery in 2022 and 2023. Although these gains partially retrenched through 2024, they have since mostly recovered and are up 3.4 percent since before the pandemic. Long-term gains in earnings power have been more muted for younger workers.
Nonetheless, the early 20s group—besides a sharp drop during COVID—has still grown modestly over time, and with a sharp spike of 2.3 percent over the past 12 months. In contrast, teenagers had seen almost no long-term gains by the start of 2023, their index barely unchanged since 2005, before rising over two percent by last summer. Since then, however, their wage index has fallen 1.3 percent.
Over the past 12 months, hiring volume has actually risen 5.7 percent for teenagers, albeit from near-record lows last summer, while barely changing (and still hovering just above record lows) for workers in their 20s. This means that more teens are starting jobs this summer than last summer, and that the growth is concentrated among lower-earning roles.
For workers in their early 20s, the wage index has risen without a significant drop in hiring volume, so there is likely occupational upgrading to higher-paying jobs for the age group as a whole. This same trend has been playing out for the prime-age workers, although with slightly less earnings index gains and slightly more volume gains. If earnings power rises without hiring falling, or vice versa, the labor market is holding up.
Still, it’s better if both rise.
Interactive charts and full data are available at upjohn.org/nhqi.