April 17, 2026
The Upjohn Institute for Employment Research recently held its regular community breakfast at Kalamazoo College. The guest speaker was Erika McEntarfer, former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Her removal from BLS last year sparked concern in many quarters that the flow of accurate information on the economy from trusted sources was at risk. The importance of accurate data, the increasing difficulties of securing reliable numbers, and the question of whether the numbers released are still trustworthy all featured in her talk.
“The U.S. economy doesn’t announce its turning points in advance. It communicates through data, and that data is essential for understanding both the path of the economy and where we are on that path,” she explained.
By having access to good, reliable data, uncertainty is kept low. One of the reasons that the United States enjoys more stability in the business cycle now compared to other points in history is the amount of data that exist to help guide policy. When data are unreliable, volatility can follow. In extreme cases, such as the Eurozone crisis in Greece or the final years of the USSR, unreliable data can be disastrous.
With that in mind, are the numbers the federal government put out still reliable? Or should we eschew official data for something else?
Dr. McEntarfer is firm in her belief that economic statistics are still accurate and are likely to remain so for the foreseeable future, saying, “The staff still continue to say that there is no political pressure on them to manipulate data. As long as they continue to say that, I think we’re OK – but obviously some caution is warranted.”
She explained the inner workings of BLS, including how the commissioner has no access to economic data until after it has been collected, processed, and prepared for presentation elsewhere. The dedicated staff, who are not political appointees, are wary of even the slightest interference with their work.
At this moment, she argues there is no reason to suppose the data are being altered to suit a narrative.
However, she does acknowledge that there are other potential problems with economic statistics to be concerned about. Response rates to requests for information have declined over the past few years. In the United Kingdom, this decline has been so severe that the survey and estimates derived from it have been discontinued due to inaccuracy. While the United States still collects enough data for reliable statistics, the response rate is still lower than it has been in the past.
To hear more about what Dr. McEntarfer has to say about trust in economic statistics, check out the videos below showing her full presentation and Q&A with Upjohn Insitute President Mike Horrigan.