June 3, 2026
The Upjohn Institute New Hires Quality Index shows that the inflation-adjusted hourly earnings power of people starting new jobs fell in April, declining 0.4 percent to $22.28. The index is nonetheless still up slightly from a year ago. Hiring volume, on the other hand, has jumped 0.9 percent and reached its highest level since the start of 2024. Hiring rates, adjusting for population change, are up 2.4 percent from last year – though they remain 7.8 percent below their pre-COVID baseline.
This month, author Brad Hershbein returns to the differences in hiring dynamics between the foreign-born and native-born. Previously explored a year ago, this month’s report returns to familiar ground to shine a light on how changes in immigration enforcement since then have affected hiring for both groups.
While the wage index for the foreign-born nose-dived 7 percent between January 2023 and January 2025, it has since largely recovered. In the last 12 months, it has increased 4.9 percent. On the other hand, the wage index for native-born workers has been nearly flat for the same period, down a mere 0.1 percent since April 2025.
The patterns, however, are reversed when it comes to the volume of hires. Over the past 12 months the number of native-born hires has jumped 5.8 percent while the number of foreign-born hires dropped 3.3 percent. (These trends persist even when looking at hiring rates instead of just counts.) Thus, the recent rebound in overall hiring volume is driven entirely by the native-born.
A higher wage index and lower hiring volume for the foreign-born suggest that the composition of foreign-born hires has shifted toward fewer but higher-skilled (and higher-paying) positions.
Interactive charts and full data are available at upjohn.org/nhqi.