Has the expansion peaked? New Hires Quality Index

Man carrying yellow hard hat

The Upjohn Institute New Hires Quality Index for November 2019 shows the earnings power of people starting a new job rose 1.1 percent from the previous year, to $16.75, up 6.8 percent since 2005.

In this month’s release, Index creator Brad Hershbein compares two different groups of new hires: people switching jobs from one employer to another and those moving into employment from non-employment. The trends, he writes, could signal an end to the long-running economic expansion.

Since late 2017, hiring volume has fallen 3.7 for the newly employed and 2.1 percent for job changers. The wage index for newly employed workers has seen little change in the last 12 months, while the wage index for job changers has grown sharply.

While the expansion might not be over yet, Hershbein writes, these patterns are consistent with it reaching maturity.

Details are in this month’s full news release.

Date: January 8, 2020