End of job-hopping wave means fewer opportunities: New Hires Quality Index

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The Upjohn Institute New Hires Quality Index again climbed slightly, up 0.1 percent between February and March, to $21.39. Hiring volume continues its fall, down 5.2 percent from last March, while hiring rates – which adjust for population growth – are at a series low.

In this month’s news release, index creator Brad Hershbein looks at trends for workers changing employers versus newly employed workers, those shifting from nonemployment into employment. Over the past year, the wage index for job changers has been falling, even as it continues to rise for newly employed workers.

Moreover, hiring volume has dropped 11.3 percent over 12 months for job switchers. The newly employed saw just a 2.0 percent drop in hiring volume over the same period. Adjusting for population changes, the hiring declines look even steeper.

While the job-hopping wave of 2021 and 2022 brought opportunities for job switchers, that path has closed, Hershbein writes. Since then, job switchers have lost three percentage points of the share of earnings power among all new hires, now holding 36 percent of the New Hires Wage Bill share.

Read the full release or explore the index. 

Date: May 1, 2024