The Upjohn Institute New Hires Quality Index rose 0.2 percent between February and March, to $21.99, but is down 0.6 percent from last year. Hiring volume rose 0.5 percent from last month’s low but is off 6.1 percent since just before the pandemic. Population-adjusted hiring rates are down 9.8 percent from their pre-COVID level.
In this month's news release, index creator Brad Hershbein compares hiring trends between workers who changed employers and those entering the workforce from a state of nonemployment. Downward trends in either group, but especially those hired out of nonemployment, can be signs of impending recession.
Drops in the wage index and hiring volume of workers changing employers was evident more than a year ago, but the newly employed had a rising wage index and only a slowly declining hiring volume. Over the past year, their wage index has turned negative and their hiring volume has dropped 4.5 percent.
The share of earnings power among all new hires accruing to people changing jobs peaked in 2022 at 39 percent and fell to around 36 percent in 2024. Although it has risen a percentage point over the last year — typically this share falls before recessions — the news isn't great, Hershbein writes: "This silver lining may be too small to insure against the headwinds that are blowing."
Read the full analysis or explore the index.