December 10, 2025
The Upjohn Institute New Hires Quality Index shows the inflation-adjusted hourly earnings power of people starting new jobs inched up in September 2025, rising to $22.16, the highest point this year. The index remains 0.5 percent below its July 2023 peak. Hiring volume increased 0.4 percent over the month but is still down 1.2 percent over the year and 5.8 percent below its pre-COVID level. After adjusting for population, hiring rates remain near record lows.
In this month’s release, Index creator Brad Hershbein examines whether the recent rise in the wage index reflects broad gains or narrower shifts, noting that full-time and part-time workers show strikingly different trends. The wage index for full-time hires has jumped 2.3 percent over the past year, reaching a new high. Part-time hires, however, have seen a 1.1 percent decline. These opposite movements have persisted for two years, an uncommon pattern.
Yet higher wages for full-time hires do not indicate a stronger labor market. Full-time hiring volume has fallen 3.4 percent from last September, reaching levels last seen in 2015. Part-time hiring volume has ticked up 0.9 percent, returning to its pre-pandemic level. The data suggest compositional change: fewer full-time opportunities overall, with those hired moving into higher-paying occupations.
Hiring rates have dropped 4.4 percent for full-time workers and 0.9 percent for part-time workers over the past year, pushing both near series lows.
Interactive charts and full data are available at upjohn.org/nhqi.
NOTE: This month’s release was delayed due to the federal government shutdown in October, which in turn delayed the release of September data. There was no data collection in October, so there will be no October data release. The November data NHQI release will occur on January 7, 2026.