|Projected Unemployment and State/Local Budget Needs, 2020 and 2021|
|U.S. unemployment rate||3.8||15.0||16.0||11.7||10.7||10.3||9.9||9.5|
|Total state need ($billions)||127||138||90||79||74||70||65||644|
|Total local need ($billions)||62||68||44||39||36||34||32||315|
|Total state/local need ($billions)||190||206||134||117||111||104||97||959|
|Note: The 3rd and 4th quarter 2020 forecasts for the unemployment rate come directly from CBO’s April 24 forecast. The 2021 forecasts |
for the unemployment rate are derived from CBO’s forecast that this rate will average 10.1 percent for the year and end at 9.5 percent,
with my assumption that the unemployment rate changes uniformly throughout the year. The 2nd quarter 2020 forecast is based on BLS’s
April 2020 unemployment estimate of 14.7 percent, and linearly interpolates to match CBO’s 3rd quarter 2020 forecast.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Congressional Budget Office, author’s calculations.