Short-Term Employment Persistence for Welfare Recipients: The "Effects" of Wages,
Industry, Occupation, and Firm Size
Upjohn Institute Working Paper 97-46
Timothy J. Bartik
June 1997
Abstract
Using data from 13 years (1983-95) of the March Current Population Survey, this study examines
how the types of jobs held by welfare mothers during the preceding year affects their employment
and earnings at the time of the March interview. The estimates suggest that the wages of last
year's job affect current employment and earnings, but the effects of wages are more modest than
might be expected. The industry and occupation of last year's job make a great deal of difference,
with industry being more important than occupation. The industries with the most positive effects
on current employment are hospitals and educational services; jobs held last year in the temporary
help industry are negatively correlated with current employment. The size of the firm employing a
welfare recipient last year has no effect on March's employment or earnings. These results suggest
that welfare-to-work programs should consider efforts to target higher-wage jobs or jobs in
industries such as hospitals or educational services.
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